Brazilian Candidate to IPCC Chair
Español Français Português
Dr. Thelma Krug
Brazilian Candidate to IPCC Chair
Retired senior researcher from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), of the Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation’s (MCTI). She is a mathematician by training, with a PhD in Spatial Statistics from the University of Sheffield, UK.
She was elected to one of the three vice-chairs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the 6th Assessment Cycle (October 2015 to July 2023). Prior to that, she was one of two co-chairs of the IPCC Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI), from 2002 to 2015.
She was Assistant Secretary at the Secretariat for Science and Technology Policies and Programs, Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology, from 2001 to 2003; National Secretary at the Secretariat for Climate Change and Environmental Quality, Brazilian Ministry of Environment, from 2007 to 2008; and Director of the Department of Policies to Combat Deforestation, also at the Ministry of Environment, from 2016 to 2017.
For over 15 years, she represented Brazil in international negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), on issues related to land use, land-use change and forestry; national inventories of greenhouse gases; research and systematic observation, among others. Her main areas of interest are climate change and deforestation, forest degradation and land-use change, REDD+ and national greenhouse gas inventories.
Since 2020, she has served as chair of the Terrestrial Observation Panel on Climate of the World Meteorological Organization’s Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). In January 2022, she was appointed member of the Superior Council of the São Paulo State Research Foundation (FAPESP).
______________________________________________________________________________________________
Vision for the next assessment cycle
My participation as a member of the IPCC Bureau in three assessment cycles, starting in 2002, allowed me to accumulate vast experience with the world scientific production on climate change. The sixth assessment cycle (AR6), which ends in July 2023, has been the most ambitious since 1988, with three special reports, the contributions of the three Working Groups, a methodological update of the 2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, and a Synthesis Report. Unsurprisingly, such a level of ambition brought with it important challenges and many lessons learned, which will be the subject of a report by the Bureau on lessons learned during the Sixth Assessment Cycle, to be presented during the 59th Plenary Session of the IPCC in July 2023. The Panel and its Secretariat, as well as the next Bureau, Technical Support Units, co-chairs and members of the Working Group and Task Force Councils, along authors and review editors, are expected to assimilate and enhance the positive experiences and to pursue ways to overcome the remaining difficulties.
The current cycle has brought about significant progress on several fronts, most notably the initiative to create a Gender Working Group in March 2018, aimed at developing goals and actions to improve gender balance and address gender-related issues within the Panel. This initiative evolved into an IPCC Policy on Gender and an Implementation Plan approved during the 52nd Session, which identified actions, tasks, and responsibilities. A Gender Action Team was also established, chaired by Ko Barret and myself as vice-chair, which, with the results of an ongoing survey on Diversity, Equity and Inclusion during the AR6, should provide elements to be considered already at the outset of the next cycle.
Another topic that advanced significantly was communication, facilitated by the production of relevant materials for different stakeholders, such as specific videos on each of the three Working Groups, regional synthesis and outreach events that had great repercussion in several regions of the developing world. Although the priority audiences at these events were national focal points, media, and academia, the generation that will be at the forefront of decision-making processes in the near future is an important segment to be reached out and engaged. The experience of including young scientists in several chapters of the last reports has shown that the youth has enormous potential and motivation to contribute, although their active involvement is still not yet part of the Panel's proceedings, which will certainly deserve attention in the next cycle.
The speed with which the relevant scientific literature is evolving represents another challenge. The increasing availability will require efforts to ensure greater access to publications, which is not always possible, particularly in developing countries. At the same time, it is important to note that publications in other media, both academic and originating from the private sector, even when not peer reviewed, can make important contributions to the assessment process, provided they comply with the IPCC procedures.
Ensuring good integration among the three Working Groups and greater involvement of the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories will be critical for consistency of work in the next assessment cycle. We also identify the need for a greater and better coordination with other international scientific communities, especially those involved with scientific assessments in climate-related themes, such as WMO and UNEP, aiming for a greater harmonization of concepts and definitions.
Based on the lessons learned, it will be my priority, if elected, to promote a dynamic, constructive, and trusting work environment in all instances of the Panel, respecting inclusiveness and promoting diversity, elements that I consider essential for another cycle of fruitful scientific assessment under the guidance of the member states.
Thelma Krug