Anac hosts Workshop on Long-Term Air Traffic Forecasts

The National Civil Aviation Agency (Anac) held the Long-Term Air Traffic Forecast Workshop from December 16 to 18. Organized in partnership with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the event brought together national and international experts at Anac’s headquarters in Brasília to discuss advanced methodologies for forecasting and planning in the civil aviation sector.

The program included detailed presentations on the use of models based on passenger demand and economic factors, such as per capita income and fuel prices. Behzad Taghipour, ICAO’s Associate Aviation Officer, highlighted the importance of these projections in identifying infrastructure needs and strategic planning, which are essential to prevent logistical constraints from hindering the growth of air transportation.

Based on prospective scenarios – high, mid and low – studies were conducted to project the growth of passenger and cargo air traffic through 2050. These projections take into account factors such as major international sporting events and global recovery from health crises, including epidemics and pandemics.

In the Brazilian context, Antônio Marcos Oliveira, General Coordinator of Planning, Studies, and Training in Civil Aviation at the Ministry of Ports and Airports, presented the Brazilian National Airway Plan (Plano Aeroviário Nacional - PAN 24). This strategic planning tool aligns with ICAO recommendations and outlines the development of Brazil’s aviation sector over the next 30 years, starting in 2022, offering insights into the growth of domestic demand.

The aviation industry was also represented by Juan Saeta Farinha, Head of Market Forecast at Embraer, who emphasized the role of infrastructure in enabling the sustainable growth of air transportation and national development.

The event reaffirmed ANAC’s commitment to supporting ICAO in promoting the integrated development of civil aviation, underpinned by robust projections that drive both economic growth and sustainability in the global aviation sector.

Anac's Social Communication Department